PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeDeutsche Bank ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEintracht Frankfurt1. FC Heidenheim
Shots12 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals0.92 xG/match▲0.15 xG/match
Possession66%34%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Eintracht Frankfurt have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Eintracht Frankfurt have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.1%▲PossessionEintracht Frankfurt · 1. FC Heidenheim42.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricEintracht Frankfurt1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession54.1%42.2%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Eintracht Frankfurt
1Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Eintracht Frankfurt favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1 · 5 too close

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/260.92 goals/match
1.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/262.23 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 1/1—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 1/1—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/2611.3 shots/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2615.3 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/263.31 shots/match
4.42 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/265.73 shots/match
54.1%Possessionseason · 26/2642.2%
4.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/264.65 corners/match
4.31 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/264.88 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 26/26▲1.54 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/260%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2658%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Eintracht Frankfurt69.4
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Eintracht Frankfurt50
1. FC Heidenheim7.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Eintracht Frankfurt49.1
1. FC Heidenheim6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Eintracht Frankfurt2.8
1. FC Heidenheim69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Eintracht Frankfurt51.4
1. FC Heidenheim27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Eintracht Frankfurt19.4
1. FC Heidenheim44.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Eintracht Frankfurt38.9
1. FC Heidenheim25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
11.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.2 shots/match
58.8%Possession5/543.2%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
9.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
53.8%Possession10/1041.3%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

26 / 26 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored26/260.92 goals/match
1.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/262.23 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
11.5 shots/matchShots26/2611.3 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target26/263.31 shots/match
54.1%Possession26/2642.2%
4.35 corners/matchCorners26/264.65 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards26/261.54 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.77 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.69 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/132.08 goals/match
—Expected goals1/1—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.9 shots/match
5.08 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.85 shots/match
52.7%Possession13/1343.6%
5 corners/matchCorners13/134.54 corners/match
1.77 cards/matchCards13/131.92 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEintracht Frankfurt1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match