PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
2–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1899 Hoffenheim
Shots8 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1899 Hoffenheim's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1899 Hoffenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1899 Hoffenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1899 Hoffenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · 1899 Hoffenheim13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.5%▲Possession1. FC Heidenheim · 1899 Hoffenheim54.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Possession42.5%54.2%47.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Heidenheim
0Draws
11899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 8 · 4 too close

0.96 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲2.12 goals/match
2.28 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.32 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲13.8 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲12.7 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲5.32 shots/match
5.8 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲4.28 shots/match
42.5%Possessionseason · 25/2554.2%
4.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/255.32 corners/match
4.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/255.36 corners/match
1.52 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 25/252.04 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2514 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲24%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
1899 Hoffenheim80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim13
1899 Hoffenheim82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim4.6
1899 Hoffenheim69.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim69.4
1899 Hoffenheim36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim30.6
1899 Hoffenheim79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim47.2
1899 Hoffenheim80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim31.2
1899 Hoffenheim84
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7 shots/match
46%Possession5/557.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
0.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.5 shots/match
43.5%Possession10/1054.6%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

25 / 25 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲2.12 goals/match
2.28 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲13.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲5.32 shots/match
42.5%Possession25/2554.2%
4.68 corners/matchCorners25/255.32 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCards25/252.04 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2514 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.15 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2 goals/match
2.38 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.46 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots13/1312.1 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4.62 shots/match
40.7%Possession13/1352.3%
4.77 corners/matchCorners13/134.85 corners/match
1.15 cards/matchCards13/132.31 cards/match
9.69 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC Heidenheim1899 Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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