PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Voith-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim 2–4 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

2–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 2–4.

Shots
816
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
1.072.34
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

1899 Hoffenheim beat 1. FC Heidenheim 4–2. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – 1899 Hoffenheim): shots 8–16, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 1.07–2.34, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1899 Hoffenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1899 Hoffenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · 1899 Hoffenheim13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.4%Possession1. FC Heidenheim · 1899 Hoffenheim● 54.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Possession42.4%54.2%47.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots16 shots1. FC Heidenheim 8 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 16 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shots1. FC Heidenheim 2 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.07 xG2.34 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.07 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 2.34 xG
  • Possession46%54%1. FC Heidenheim 46%, TSG Hoffenheim 54%
  • Corners4 corners3 corners1. FC Heidenheim 4 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls15 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 7 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards0 cards1. FC Heidenheim 0 cards, TSG Hoffenheim 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Fisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVladimír Coufal · 1899 Hoffenheim · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlbian Hajdari · 1899 Hoffenheim · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBazoumana Touré · 1899 Hoffenheim · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOzan Kabak · 1899 Hoffenheim · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 26′ · 0.04 xG · goalJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · 1899 Hoffenheim · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuca Kerber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 84′ · 0.07 xG · goalBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 15′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAlexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.16 xG · goalLeon Avdullahu · 1899 Hoffenheim · 49′ · 0.19 xG · on targetValentin Gendrey · 1899 Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedFisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 49′ · 0.39 xG · goalLuca Kerber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 62′ · 0.79 xG · goalTim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 78′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.09 xG. 1899 Hoffenheim: 16 shots, 7 on target, 2.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Luca Kerber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 62′Luca Kerber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 84′Alexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 26′Alexander Prass · 1899 Hoffenheim · 45′Fisnik Asllani · 1899 Hoffenheim · 49′Tim Lemperle · 1899 Hoffenheim · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.09 xG · 1899 Hoffenheim 2.39 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Heidenheim
3Draws
2TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga3–1
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Heidenheim — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga0–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Heidenheim — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim25 matchesTSG Hoffenheim25 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.12 goals/match
2.28 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.32 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.66 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 13.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.32 shots/match
42.4%Possession25/25● 54.2%
4.68 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.32 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCards25/252.04 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2514 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimTSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — TSG Hoffenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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