PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimFC St. Pauli
Shots20 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners10 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.96 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.96 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.2%▲Possession1899 Hoffenheim · FC St. Pauli44.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession54.2%44.8%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11899 Hoffenheim
1Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — 1899 Hoffenheim · DFB Pokal1–1
FC St. Pauli — 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 5 too close

2.04 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/240.96 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.67 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2410.4 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲11.7 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/243.54 shots/match
4.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/245.38 shots/match
54.2%Possessionseason · 24/2444.8%
5.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/244.63 corners/match
5.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/245.21 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲1.54 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2417%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2463%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim80.6
FC St. Pauli19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim82.4
FC St. Pauli6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim67.6
FC St. Pauli48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim36.1
FC St. Pauli13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim80.5
FC St. Pauli25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim91.7
FC St. Pauli41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim87.5
FC St. Pauli22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
58.8%Possession5/539.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
54.5%Possession10/1040.9%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.1 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
2.04 goals/match▲Goals scored24/240.96 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots24/2410.4 shots/match
5.25 shots/match▲Shots on target24/243.54 shots/match
54.2%Possession24/2444.8%
5.42 corners/matchCorners24/244.63 corners/match
2.13 cards/matchCards24/241.54 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 13 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/130.77 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/131.69 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1310.2 shots/match
6.08 shots/match▲Shots on target12/132.69 shots/match
56.2%Possession12/1342.6%
5.83 corners/matchCorners12/133.54 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards12/131.46 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1310.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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