Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap

1. FC Köln

WLWLL

2–2Full-time recap

1899 Hoffenheim

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Köln	1899 Hoffenheim
Shots	9 shots/match	18 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Possession	36%	64%
Corners	3 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	12 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.43 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11. FC Köln

0Draws

01899 Hoffenheim

3 Oct 20251899 Hoffenheim — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 7 · 6 too close

1.43 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2.13 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2313.5 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲13 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲5 shots/match

4.91 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.43 shots/match

46.8%Possessionseason · 23/2353.7%

4.13 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.22 corners/match

5.96 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲5.52 corners/match

1.65 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.17 cards/match

8.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2314 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲26%

87%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2387%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln41.7

1899 Hoffenheim80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln53.7

1899 Hoffenheim81.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln32.4

1899 Hoffenheim67.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln75

1899 Hoffenheim36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln11.1

1899 Hoffenheim80.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln13.9

1899 Hoffenheim66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln31.9

1899 Hoffenheim79.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.6 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match

44%Possession5/554%

4 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match

1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match

8 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.4 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/matchShots10/1013.4 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.4 shots/match

45.5%Possession10/1053.9%

4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match

7.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches

1.43 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2.13 goals/match

1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.3 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13 shots/matchShots23/2313.5 shots/match

4.43 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲5 shots/match

46.8%Possession23/2353.7%

4.13 corners/matchCorners23/235.22 corners/match

1.65 cards/matchCards23/232.17 cards/match

8.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2314 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches

1.75 goals/matchGoals scored12/121.83 goals/match

1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.42 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1211.8 shots/match

4.92 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.42 shots/match

47.3%Possession12/1252.2%

4.33 corners/matchCorners12/125 corners/match

1.42 cards/matchCards12/122.5 cards/match

7.75 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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