PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinBayer Leverkusen
Shots8 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession35%65%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

39%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · Bayer Leverkusen59.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBayer LeverkusenBaseline
Possession39%59.7%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

weak

Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.26 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.26 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Union Berlin
0Draws
1Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen — Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 6 · 6 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/22▲1.95 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/22▲1.27 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/22▲13.8 shots/match
12.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2211.9 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/22▲4.55 shots/match
4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/224.68 shots/match
39%Possessionseason · 23/2259.7%
5.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/225.09 corners/match
4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/224.64 corners/match
2.26 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/222.32 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/228.77 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/22▲27%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/22▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin34.3
Bayer Leverkusen73.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin69.4
Bayer Leverkusen72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
Bayer Leverkusen8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin80.6
Bayer Leverkusen41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin83.3
Bayer Leverkusen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin59
Bayer Leverkusen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match
40.6%Possession5/560.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots10/1013.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match
43%Possession10/1060.6%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 22 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored23/22▲1.95 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed23/22▲1.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots23/22▲13.8 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on target23/22▲4.55 shots/match
39%Possession23/2259.7%
5.35 corners/matchCorners23/225.09 corners/match
2.26 cards/matchCards23/222.32 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls23/228.77 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/11▲1.73 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots12/1111.7 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.55 shots/match
38%Possession12/1157.9%
5.25 corners/matchCorners12/114.18 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards12/112.36 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls12/118.73 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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