PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVUnion Berlin
Shots13 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession56%44%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

weak

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.5 fouls/match▲FoulsHamburger SV · Union Berlin12.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVUnion BerlinBaseline
Fouls12.5 fouls/match12.9 fouls/match10.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV
1Draws
0Union Berlin
Union Berlin — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 6 · 5 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/22▲1.27 goals/match
1.48 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/221.68 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2213 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/22▲12 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/223.64 shots/match
4.76 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/22▲4.27 shots/match
47%Possessionseason · 21/2239.2%
3.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/225.41 corners/match
4.9 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/22▲4.18 corners/match
2.76 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/22▲2.14 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2212.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2218%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/22▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV41.7
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV51.8
Union Berlin35.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV49.1
Union Berlin67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV69.4
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV91.7
Union Berlin79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV8.3
Union Berlin86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV54.1
Union Berlin60.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots5/513.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
50%Possession5/542.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104 shots/match
45.9%Possession10/1045.2%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 22 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored21/22▲1.27 goals/match
1.48 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/221.68 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots21/2213 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on target21/223.64 shots/match
47%Possession21/2239.2%
3.95 corners/matchCorners21/225.41 corners/match
2.76 cards/matchCards21/222.14 cards/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls21/2212.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1113.5 shots/match
5.45 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.55 shots/match
46.1%Possession11/1140.1%
3.82 corners/matchCorners11/115.45 corners/match
2.55 cards/matchCards11/111.45 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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