PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
Shots12 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.5%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · FC St. Pauli45.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession59.5%45.3%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Bayer Leverkusen
0Draws
0FC St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen — FC St. Pauli · DFB Pokal3–0
FC St. Pauli — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 4 too close

2.05 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/220.91 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/221.77 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2210.6 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/22▲11.3 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/223.55 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/225.18 shots/match
59.5%Possessionseason · 21/2245.3%
5.1 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/224.86 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/225 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/22▲1.5 cards/match
8.86 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2210.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2214%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2259%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
FC St. Pauli25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen75
FC St. Pauli4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen67.6
FC St. Pauli49.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen8.3
FC St. Pauli13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen41.6
FC St. Pauli30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen63.9
FC St. Pauli47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen54.2
FC St. Pauli25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
59.8%Possession5/541.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
60.4%Possession10/1041%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.1 cards/match
8.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 22 matches
2.05 goals/match▲Goals scored21/220.91 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/221.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots21/2210.6 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target21/223.55 shots/match
59.5%Possession21/2245.3%
5.1 corners/matchCorners21/224.86 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards21/221.5 cards/match
8.86 fouls/matchFouls21/2210.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
2.18 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.75 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.1 shots/match
5.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/122.67 shots/match
61.5%Possession11/1243.3%
6 corners/matchCorners11/123.58 corners/match
2.27 cards/matchCards11/121.42 cards/match
8.82 fouls/matchFouls11/1210.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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