PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025BayArena

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

4–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 4–0.

Shots
1211
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
1.40.49
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 4–0. Recorded in this match (Bayer Leverkusen – FC St. Pauli): shots 12–11, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 1.4–0.49, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.5% ●PossessionBayer Leverkusen · FC St. Pauli45.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession59.5%45.3%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots11 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 12 shots, FC St. Pauli 11 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotBayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots, FC St. Pauli 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.4 xG0.49 xGBayer 04 Leverkusen 1.4 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.49 xG
  • Possession68%32%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 68%, FC St. Pauli 32%
  • Corners8 corners3 cornersBayer 04 Leverkusen 8 corners, FC St. Pauli 3 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls10 foulsBayer 04 Leverkusen 7 fouls, FC St. Pauli 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardBayer 04 Leverkusen 0 cards, FC St. Pauli 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Karol Mets · FC St. Pauli · 35′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMathias Rasmussen · FC St. Pauli · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 85′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 86′ · 0.02 xG · on targetArkadiusz Pyrka · FC St. Pauli · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErnest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 78′ · 0.03 xG · goalManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 61′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMalik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMartijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer Leverkusen · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kofane · Bayer Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 28′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMalik Tillman · Bayer Leverkusen · 71′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTaichi Hara · FC St. Pauli · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 14′ · 0.18 xG · goalJarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen · 13′ · 0.20 xG · goalEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.20 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 14′ · 0.40 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer Leverkusen: 12 shots, 7 on target, 1.40 xG. FC St. Pauli: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen · 13′Patrik Schick · Bayer Leverkusen · 14′Edmond Tapsoba · Bayer Leverkusen · 52′Ernest Poku · Bayer Leverkusen · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer Leverkusen 1.40 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1Draws
0FC St. Pauli
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC St. Pauli · DFB Pokal3–0
FC St. Pauli — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–2
FC St. Pauli — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen21 matchesFC St. Pauli22 matches
2.05 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/220.91 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/221.77 goals/match
1.7 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/220.93 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots21/2210.6 shots/match
4.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/223.55 shots/match
59.5% ●Possession21/2245.3%
5.1 corners/match ●Corners21/224.86 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards21/221.5 cards/match
8.86 fouls/matchFouls21/2210.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBayer 04 LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headBayer 04 Leverkusen — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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