PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC St. PauliVfB Stuttgart
Shots15 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

46%▲PossessionFC St. Pauli · VfB Stuttgart57.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession46%57.9%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC St. Pauli
0Draws
1VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 8 · 4 too close

0.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.81 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲15.1 shots/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.6 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.81 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.33 shots/match
46%Possessionseason · 21/2157.9%
4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.52 corners/match
4.86 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.14 corners/match
1.52 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/211.95 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.95 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲38%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli30.6
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli10.2
VfB Stuttgart80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli49.1
VfB Stuttgart67.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli8.3
VfB Stuttgart58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli30.6
VfB Stuttgart41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli58.3
VfB Stuttgart88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli31.9
VfB Stuttgart74.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.6 shots/match
42.8%Possession5/561.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
0.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.9 shots/match
39.8%Possession10/1056.8%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.81 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots21/21▲15.1 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.81 shots/match
46%Possession21/2157.9%
4.95 corners/matchCorners21/215.52 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCards21/211.95 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls21/219.95 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲2.18 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲1.55 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots10/11▲14.5 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲5.73 shots/match
47.8%Possession10/1159.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/115.82 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/111.82 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1110.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC St. PauliVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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