PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC AugsburgFC St. Pauli
Shots12 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC St. Pauli. A second useful context is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC St. Pauli.

7 days▲Rest daysFC Augsburg · FC St. Pauli3.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC AugsburgFC St. PauliBaseline
Rest days7 days3.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC Augsburg
0Draws
1FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 3 · 6 too close

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.9 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2010.4 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲11.5 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.5 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.2 shots/match
45.1%Possessionseason · 20/2046.7%
4.4 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.95 corners/match
4.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/204.85 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2010.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2015%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg25
FC St. Pauli36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg38.9
FC St. Pauli6.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg39.8
FC St. Pauli47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg75
FC St. Pauli2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg86.2
FC St. Pauli27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg25
FC St. Pauli58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg47.2
FC St. Pauli27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
43%Possession5/544.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
43.7%Possession10/1042.5%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.9 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots20/2010.4 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.5 shots/match
45.1%Possession20/2046.7%
4.4 corners/matchCorners20/204.95 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards20/201.6 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls20/2010.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.82 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1110 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.82 shots/match
47%Possession11/1144.3%
5.55 corners/matchCorners11/113.64 corners/match
2.73 cards/matchCards11/111.45 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC AugsburgFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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