PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Tue, 27 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeMillerntor-StadionFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC St. PauliRB Leipzig
Shots7 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC St. Pauli, RB Leipzig. A second useful context is: FC St. Pauli's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC St. Pauli, RB Leipzig.

4 days▲Rest daysFC St. Pauli · RB Leipzig3.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC St. PauliRB LeipzigBaseline
Rest days4 days3.21 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC St. Pauli's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.6 shots/match10.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC St. Pauli favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 8 · 5 too close

0.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.95 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.32 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲16.1 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1912.4 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲5.79 shots/match
5.16 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲4 shots/match
46.2%Possessionseason · 19/1951.9%
4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/195.42 corners/match
4.84 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/194.68 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.37 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/199.32 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲47%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC St. Pauli30.6
RB Leipzig63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC St. Pauli4.7
RB Leipzig84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC St. Pauli51.9
RB Leipzig76.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC St. Pauli2.8
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli27.8
RB Leipzig13.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC St. Pauli58.3
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC St. Pauli27.1
RB Leipzig70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
7.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
42.4%Possession5/555.6%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.4 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.4 shots/match
2.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.3 shots/match
40.9%Possession10/1055.4%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.95 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.32 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots19/19▲16.1 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.79 shots/match
46.2%Possession19/1951.9%
4.95 corners/matchCorners19/195.42 corners/match
1.63 cards/matchCards19/191.37 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls19/199.32 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/10▲1.5 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.9 shots/matchShots9/10▲14.8 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target9/10▲4.6 shots/match
49.6%Possession9/1053%
6.56 corners/matchCorners9/105.1 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/101.5 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls9/109.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.21 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 27 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC St. PauliRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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