PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC HeidenheimRB Leipzig
Shots7 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession26%74%
Corners4 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · RB Leipzig16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1. FC Heidenheim.

7 days▲Rest days1. FC Heidenheim · RB Leipzig6.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1. FC HeidenheimRB LeipzigBaseline
Rest days7 days6.88 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Heidenheim
0Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 9 · 5 too close

0.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/18▲2 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/18▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/18▲16.3 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/18▲12.7 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/18▲5.83 shots/match
5.79 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/18▲4.11 shots/match
41.9%Possessionseason · 19/1851.8%
4.74 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/185.56 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/184.72 corners/match
1.74 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/18▲1.39 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/189.39 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/18▲50%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/18▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
RB Leipzig63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim13.9
RB Leipzig87.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim5.6
RB Leipzig71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim63.9
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim33.4
RB Leipzig13.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim47.2
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim30.6
RB Leipzig72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
39.2%Possession5/557.4%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/50.8 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.8 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.7 shots/match
43.1%Possession10/1054.2%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.2 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 18 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored19/18▲2 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed19/18▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots19/18▲16.3 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target19/18▲5.83 shots/match
41.9%Possession19/1851.8%
4.74 corners/matchCorners19/185.56 corners/match
1.74 cards/matchCards19/181.39 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls19/189.39 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲1.56 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/9▲15.1 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲4.56 shots/match
40.1%Possession10/952.9%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/95.33 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/91.56 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/99.78 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC HeidenheimRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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