PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL Wolfsburg1. FC Heidenheim
Shots13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners9 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for VfL Wolfsburg, 1. FC Heidenheim. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for VfL Wolfsburg, 1. FC Heidenheim.

2.88 days▲Rest daysVfL Wolfsburg · 1. FC Heidenheim3.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVfL Wolfsburg1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Rest days2.88 days3.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 6 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/180.94 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/182.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/1811.6 shots/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1815.8 shots/match
4.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.67 shots/match
5.17 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.67 shots/match
47.3%Possessionseason · 18/1842.8%
3.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.78 corners/match
7.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.89 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.78 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1810.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/180%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg41.7
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg42.6
1. FC Heidenheim13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg23.2
1. FC Heidenheim5.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg47.2
1. FC Heidenheim58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg57
1. FC Heidenheim36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg8.3
1. FC Heidenheim50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg34.7
1. FC Heidenheim32.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲2.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
52.2%Possession5/546.8%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲2.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/1011.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match
47.6%Possession10/1043.3%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.94 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed18/182.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots18/1811.6 shots/match
4.28 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.67 shots/match
47.3%Possession18/1842.8%
3.94 corners/matchCorners18/184.78 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards18/181.78 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/90.78 goals/match
2.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/92.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots10/911.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/93.44 shots/match
50.4%Possession10/944%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/95 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/92.11 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls10/911.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL Wolfsburg1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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