PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Signal Iduna Park

Borussia Dortmund 3–2 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 3–2.

Shots
109
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
3.20.54
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 3–2. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – FC St. Pauli): shots 10–9, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 3.2–0.54, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.2 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Borussia Dortmund, FC St. Pauli.

3.79 days ▲Rest daysBorussia Dortmund · FC St. Pauli2.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBorussia DortmundFC St. PauliBaseline
Rest days3.79 days2.88 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · FC St. Pauli10.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundFC St. PauliBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsBorussia Dortmund 10 shots, FC St. Pauli 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsBorussia Dortmund 6 shots, FC St. Pauli 5 shots
  • Expected goals3.2 xG0.54 xGBorussia Dortmund 3.2 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.54 xG
  • Possession63%37%Borussia Dortmund 63%, FC St. Pauli 37%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersBorussia Dortmund 5 corners, FC St. Pauli 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls11 foulsBorussia Dortmund 9 fouls, FC St. Pauli 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardBorussia Dortmund 3 cards, FC St. Pauli 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ricky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRicky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRicky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 72′ · 0.03 xG · goalLars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoel Chima Fujita · FC St. Pauli · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · FC St. Pauli · 62′ · 0.10 xG · goalMartijn Kaars · FC St. Pauli · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMathias Pereira Lage · FC St. Pauli · 27′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 26′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 39′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 13′ · 0.16 xG · on targetRicky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 78′ · 0.16 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 81′ · 0.18 xG · on targetWaldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 81′ · 0.24 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.70 xG · goalKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 54′ · 0.79 xG · goalEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 10 shots, 6 on target, 3.21 xG. FC St. Pauli: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 45′Karim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 54′Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 90′James Sands · FC St. Pauli · 62′Ricky-Jade Jones · FC St. Pauli · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 3.21 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Borussia Dortmund
1Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–3
FC St. Pauli — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2
Borussia Dortmund — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund18 matchesFC St. Pauli17 matches
1.94 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/170.94 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/171.82 goals/match
1.71 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/170.82 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots18/1710.4 shots/match
4.78 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/173.53 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession18/1746.4%
5.06 corners/match ●Corners18/175 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards18/171.76 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1710.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — FC St. Pauli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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