PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeVolkswagen ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfL WolfsburgFC St. Pauli
Shots13 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for VfL Wolfsburg. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for VfL Wolfsburg.

3.04 days▲Rest daysVfL Wolfsburg · FC St. Pauli24.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVfL WolfsburgFC St. PauliBaseline
Rest days3.04 days24.1 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches0 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 4 · 6 too close

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/160.88 goals/match
2.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/16▲1.75 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1610.4 shots/match
14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/16▲11.9 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/163.44 shots/match
5.29 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/165.31 shots/match
45.9%Possessionseason · 17/1646.9%
3.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/165 corners/match
7.53 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/16▲5 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/161.81 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1610.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/16▲13%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg30.6
FC St. Pauli47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg41.7
FC St. Pauli4.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg16.6
FC St. Pauli41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg52.8
FC St. Pauli2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg54.1
FC St. Pauli36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg2.8
FC St. Pauli58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg33.4
FC St. Pauli27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
46.8%Possession5/536.8%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/match▲Shots10/109.1 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.4 shots/match
44.5%Possession10/1043.7%
3 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 16 matches
1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored17/160.88 goals/match
2.18 goals/matchGoals allowed17/16▲1.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/match▲Shots17/1610.4 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target17/163.44 shots/match
45.9%Possession17/1646.9%
3.65 corners/matchCorners17/165 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards17/161.81 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls17/1610.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.67 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.44 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots9/99.33 shots/match
5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/92.33 shots/match
48.2%Possession9/943.8%
4.33 corners/matchCorners9/93.33 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards9/91.56 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls9/910.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfL WolfsburgFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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