PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–3 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–3.

Shots
819
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
0.721.5
Possession
28%72%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat 1. FC Köln 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Bayern München): shots 8–19, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 0.72–1.5, possession 28%–72%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Köln · Bayern München19.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match19.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against14.4 shots/match8.53 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bayern München.

4.21 days ▲Rest days1. FC Köln · Bayern München3.12 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1. FC KölnBayern MünchenBaseline
Rest days4.21 days3.12 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots19 shots1. FC Köln 8 shots, FC Bayern München 19 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shots1. FC Köln 3 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG1.5 xG1. FC Köln 0.72 xG, FC Bayern München 1.5 xG
  • Possession28%72%1. FC Köln 28%, FC Bayern München 72%
  • Corners4 corners6 corners1. FC Köln 4 corners, FC Bayern München 6 corners
  • Fouls3 fouls4 fouls1. FC Köln 3 fouls, FC Bayern München 4 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards0 cards1. FC Köln 0 cards, FC Bayern München 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Harry Kane · Bayern München · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 34′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHiroki Ito · Bayern München · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 48′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 58′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJahmai Simpson-Pusey · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 55′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · Bayern München · 83′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 24′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · Bayern München · 84′ · 0.13 xG · goalLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 41′ · 0.14 xG · goalHiroki Ito · Bayern München · 21′ · 0.15 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 45′ · 0.19 xG · goalSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 2′ · 0.28 xG · on targetKim Min-jae · Bayern München · 71′ · 0.30 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.69 xG. Bayern München: 19 shots, 8 on target, 1.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 41′Serge Gnabry · Bayern München · 45′Kim Min-jae · Bayern München · 71′Lennart Karl · Bayern München · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 0.69 xG · Bayern München 1.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Köln
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
1. FC Köln — FC Bayern München · DFB Pokal1–4
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Köln — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Köln — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln17 matchesFC Bayern München17 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 3.88 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 0.76 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 2.89 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 19.5 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 8.65 shots/match
46.7%Possession17/17● 68.2%
3.88 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.82 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards17/171.94 cards/match
8.53 fouls/matchFouls17/179 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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