PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
Shots21 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession64%36%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

SC Freiburg's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · SC Freiburg12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigSC FreiburgBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 1 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/171.59 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/171.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1712.9 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1712.5 shots/match
5.81 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/174.18 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/174.24 shots/match
51%Possessionseason · 16/1750.6%
5.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/174.41 corners/match
4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/17▲3.47 corners/match
1.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/171.82 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/179.59 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1724%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1776%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig63.9
SC Freiburg58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig84.3
SC Freiburg54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig73.1
SC Freiburg61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
SC Freiburg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig13.8
SC Freiburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig97.2
SC Freiburg30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig73.6
SC Freiburg40.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17 shots/match▲Shots5/515 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
56.2%Possession5/551.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.7 shots/match
6.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
52.3%Possession10/1051.5%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 17 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored16/171.59 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/171.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1712.9 shots/match
5.81 shots/match▲Shots on target16/174.18 shots/match
51%Possession16/1750.6%
5.94 corners/matchCorners16/174.41 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards16/171.82 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFouls16/179.59 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
2.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.22 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/92.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/match▲Shots8/911 shots/match
7.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.11 shots/match
51.8%Possession8/945.4%
5.88 corners/matchCorners8/93.67 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards8/91.56 cards/match
9.25 fouls/matchFouls8/99.44 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

25.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.21 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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