Bundesliga · 2025Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig 1–5 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–5Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–5.

Shots
1719
Shots on target
412
Expected goals
2.454.56
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayern München beat RB Leipzig 5–1. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – Bayern München): shots 17–19, shots on target 4–12, expected goals 2.45–4.56, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for RB Leipzig, Bayern München.

2.92 days ▲Rest daysRB Leipzig · Bayern München2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRB LeipzigBayern MünchenBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match ▲ShotsRB Leipzig · Bayern München19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match19.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.88 corners/matchCornersRB Leipzig · Bayern München● 6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayern MünchenBaseline
Corners5.88 corners/match6 corners/match4.78 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots19 shotsRB Leipzig 17 shots, FC Bayern München 19 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots12 shotsRB Leipzig 4 shots, FC Bayern München 12 shots
  • Expected goals2.45 xG4.56 xGRB Leipzig 2.45 xG, FC Bayern München 4.56 xG
  • Possession42%58%RB Leipzig 42%, FC Bayern München 58%
  • Corners5 corners9 cornersRB Leipzig 5 corners, FC Bayern München 9 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls6 foulsRB Leipzig 7 fouls, FC Bayern München 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsRB Leipzig 1 card, FC Bayern München 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luis Díaz · Bayern München · 11′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Seiwald · RB Leipzig · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Pavlović · Bayern München · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTidiam Gomis · RB Leipzig · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHiroki Ito · Bayern München · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedConrad Harder · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 58′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLennart Karl · Bayern München · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Seiwald · RB Leipzig · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 40′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRômulo · RB Leipzig · 65′ · 0.08 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 80′ · 0.16 xG · on targetJonathan Tah · Bayern München · 82′ · 0.16 xG · goalSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 82′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 88′ · 0.16 xG · goalYan Diomande · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRômulo · RB Leipzig · 20′ · 0.20 xG · goalMichael Olise · Bayern München · 58′ · 0.20 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 35′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 24′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 61′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 50′ · 0.29 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 67′ · 0.30 xG · goalRômulo · RB Leipzig · 4′ · 0.34 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 22′ · 0.39 xG · on targetHarry Kane · Bayern München · 61′ · 0.40 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 59′ · 0.75 xG · on targetAleksandar Pavlović · Bayern München · 85′ · 0.83 xG · goalAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 7′ · 0.85 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 17 shots, 4 on target, 2.47 xG. Bayern München: 19 shots, 12 on target, 4.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Rômulo · RB Leipzig · 20′Serge Gnabry · Bayern München · 50′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 67′Jonathan Tah · Bayern München · 82′Aleksandar Pavlović · Bayern München · 85′Michael Olise · Bayern München · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 2.47 xG · Bayern München 4.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0RB Leipzig
2Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga6–0
RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–3
FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga5–1
FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–1
RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig17 matchesFC Bayern München18 matches
1.94 goals/matchGoals scored17/18▲ 3.94 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed17/18▲ 0.78 goals/match
1.94 xG/matchExpected goals17/18▲ 2.98 xG/match
16.6 shots/matchShots17/18▲ 19.4 shots/match
5.71 shots/matchShots on target17/18▲ 8.83 shots/match
50.5%Possession17/18● 67.7%
5.88 corners/matchCorners17/18● 6 corners/match
1.47 cards/matchCards17/181.83 cards/match
9.41 fouls/matchFouls17/188.83 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

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