PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
1–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigBayern München
Shots17 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners5 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for RB Leipzig, Bayern München. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for RB Leipzig, Bayern München.

2.92 days▲Rest daysRB Leipzig · Bayern München2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRB LeipzigBayern MünchenBaseline
Rest days2.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · Bayern München19.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match19.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match9.06 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.88 corners/match▲CornersRB Leipzig · Bayern München6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayern MünchenBaseline
Corners5.88 corners/match6 corners/match4.78 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0RB Leipzig
0Draws
1Bayern München
Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga6–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 8 · 4 too close

1.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/18▲3.94 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/18▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/18▲19.4 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/18▲9.06 shots/match
5.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/18▲8.83 shots/match
4.24 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/18▲2.06 shots/match
50.5%Possessionseason · 17/1867.7%
5.88 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/186 corners/match
4.76 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/18▲3.61 corners/match
1.47 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/181.83 cards/match
9.41 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/188.83 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1844%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/18▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig58.3
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig82.4
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig69.5
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
Bayern München80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig13.8
Bayern München25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig91.7
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig72.2
Bayern München75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲4.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲20.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲10.4 shots/match
53%Possession5/571.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/50.4 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/56 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲4.1 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲19.1 shots/match
6.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.3 shots/match
51.8%Possession10/1070.1%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.6 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
8.3 fouls/matchFouls10/107.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 18 matches
1.94 goals/matchGoals scored17/18▲3.94 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed17/18▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/matchShots17/18▲19.4 shots/match
5.71 shots/matchShots on target17/18▲8.83 shots/match
50.5%Possession17/1867.7%
5.88 corners/matchCorners17/186 corners/match
1.47 cards/matchCards17/181.83 cards/match
9.41 fouls/matchFouls17/188.83 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲3.56 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.6 shots/matchShots9/9▲18.8 shots/match
7.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲8.89 shots/match
50.7%Possession9/966.7%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/95.67 corners/match
1.22 cards/matchCards9/92.11 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls9/98.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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