PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln won 2–1.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
67
Expected goals
2.081.52
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln beat FSV Mainz 05 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – FSV Mainz 05): shots 20–10, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 2.08–1.52, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1. FC Köln, FSV Mainz 05.

2.79 days ▲Rest days1. FC Köln · FSV Mainz 053.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1. FC KölnFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Rest days2.79 days3.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shots1. FC Köln 20 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shots1. FC Köln 6 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.08 xG1.52 xG1. FC Köln 2.08 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.52 xG
  • Possession62%38%1. FC Köln 62%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 38%
  • Corners9 corners5 corners1. FC Köln 9 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 fouls1. FC Köln 6 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards4 cards1. FC Köln 4 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Danny da Costa · FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 62′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSilas Katompa Mvumpa · FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 27′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 50′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedStefan Bell · FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.06 xG · goalRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 55′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 32′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 65′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedKacper Potulski · FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 85′ · 0.29 xG · goalRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 57′ · 0.40 xG · goalArmindo Sieb · FSV Mainz 05 · 81′ · 0.42 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.44 xG · on targetSilas Katompa Mvumpa · FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.13 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 10 shots, 7 on target, 1.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 57′Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 85′Stefan Bell · FSV Mainz 05 · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 2.13 xG · FSV Mainz 05 1.51 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Köln
3Draws
11. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Köln — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln18 matches1. FSV Mainz 0518 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181 goal/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.72 goals/match
1.45 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/181.19 xG/match
13.1 shots/match ▲Shots18/1810.8 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
47.6% ●Possession18/1845%
4.17 corners/matchCorners18/18● 4.78 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards18/182.61 cards/match
8.39 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Köln1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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