PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnFSV Mainz 05
Shots20 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession62%38%
Corners9 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1. FC Köln, FSV Mainz 05. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1. FC Köln, FSV Mainz 05.

2.79 days▲Rest days1. FC Köln · FSV Mainz 053.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1. FC KölnFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Rest days2.79 days3.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11. FC Köln
0Draws
0FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/181.72 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1810.8 shots/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1815.6 shots/match
4.72 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.11 shots/match
5.06 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.33 shots/match
47.6%Possessionseason · 18/1845%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.78 corners/match
6.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.28 corners/match
1.78 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.61 cards/match
8.39 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/186%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1856%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln47.2
FSV Mainz 0513.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln57.4
FSV Mainz 059.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln38
FSV Mainz 0523.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln75
FSV Mainz 0525
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln13.9
FSV Mainz 0577.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln13.9
FSV Mainz 0550
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln34.7
FSV Mainz 0534
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.4 shots/match
47%Possession5/538.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
6.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots10/108.9 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
50.3%Possession10/1040.7%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
7.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.8 shots/match
4.72 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
47.6%Possession18/1845%
4.17 corners/matchCorners18/184.78 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards18/182.61 cards/match
8.39 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots9/99 shots/match
5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.22 shots/match
49.2%Possession9/941.1%
4.67 corners/matchCorners9/94 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/93.11 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls9/911.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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