PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Tue, 13 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 051. FC Heidenheim
Shots13 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FSV Mainz 05, 1. FC Heidenheim. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FSV Mainz 05, 1. FC Heidenheim.

3.21 days▲Rest daysFSV Mainz 05 · 1. FC Heidenheim3.21 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFSV Mainz 051. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Rest days3.21 days3.21 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches1 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 4 · 5 too close

1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/170.94 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/172.24 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲11.5 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/1715.9 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲3.71 shots/match
5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/175.76 shots/match
45.4%Possessionseason · 17/1743.6%
4.76 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/174.71 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/174.65 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲1.71 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1710.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
6%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/170%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲65%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0519.4
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 058.3
1. FC Heidenheim12
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0525
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0525
1. FC Heidenheim58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0575
1. FC Heidenheim36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0552.8
1. FC Heidenheim41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0534.7
1. FC Heidenheim29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
41.6%Possession5/548.6%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.1 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.2 shots/match
41%Possession10/1044.3%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.94 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172.24 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots17/17▲11.5 shots/match
2.88 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲3.71 shots/match
45.4%Possession17/1743.6%
4.76 corners/matchCorners17/174.71 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCards17/171.71 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1710.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
0.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/80.75 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/82.38 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots9/811 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target9/8▲3.5 shots/match
48.9%Possession9/845.8%
5.56 corners/matchCorners9/84.88 corners/match
2.11 cards/matchCards9/82 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls9/811.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.21 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 13 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 051. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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