PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Tue, 13 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundWerder Bremen
Shots18 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Borussia Dortmund. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Borussia Dortmund.

4 days▲Rest daysBorussia Dortmund · Werder Bremen24.2 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBorussia DortmundWerder BremenBaseline
Rest days4 days24.2 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches0 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.67 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.67 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 0 · 4 too close

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/161.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/161.94 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1611.8 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1616 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/164.13 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/166.38 shots/match
52.6%Possessionseason · 17/1648.6%
5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/164.25 corners/match
4.65 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/165.56 corners/match
1.88 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/162.88 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1610.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
53%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1625%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1663%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund69.4
Werder Bremen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund58.3
Werder Bremen29.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
Werder Bremen10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund19.4
Werder Bremen30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund55.6
Werder Bremen63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund58.3
Werder Bremen22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund59
Werder Bremen29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
49.8%Possession5/546.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.8 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
51%Possession10/1049.7%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/103 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 16 matches
1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored17/161.13 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/161.94 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots17/1611.8 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target17/164.13 shots/match
52.6%Possession17/1648.6%
5.06 corners/matchCorners17/164.25 corners/match
1.88 cards/matchCards17/162.88 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1610.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 9 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.11 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/92.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots8/99.67 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.78 shots/match
54.1%Possession8/947.3%
6.88 corners/matchCorners8/94.11 corners/match
1.13 cards/matchCards8/92.33 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/910.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 13 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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