PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 2–2.

Shots
179
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
3.351.01
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Union Berlin and FSV Mainz 05 drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Union Berlin – FSV Mainz 05): shots 17–9, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 3.35–1.01, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.2 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.88 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.88 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsUnion Berlin · FSV Mainz 0511.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Fouls13.1 fouls/match11.9 fouls/match10.7 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots9 shots1. FC Union Berlin 17 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shots1. FC Union Berlin 5 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.35 xG1.01 xG1. FC Union Berlin 3.35 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.01 xG
  • Possession57%43%1. FC Union Berlin 57%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 43%
  • Corners2 corners1 corner1. FC Union Berlin 2 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 corner
  • Fouls9 fouls8 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 9 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cards1. FC Union Berlin 2 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Phillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 25′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBenedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAndrás Schäfer · Union Berlin · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLivan Burcu · Union Berlin · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDerrick Köhn · Union Berlin · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetIlyas Ansah · Union Berlin · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAljoscha Kemlein · Union Berlin · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · FSV Mainz 05 · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FSV Mainz 05 · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLivan Burcu · Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.06 xG · on targetOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 35′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · Union Berlin · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 60′ · 0.12 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 30′ · 0.17 xG · goalOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 43′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLivan Burcu · Union Berlin · 6′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · Union Berlin · 77′ · 0.36 xG · goalBenedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 69′ · 0.59 xG · goalAndrej Ilić · Union Berlin · 79′ · 0.76 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Union Berlin: 16 shots, 4 on target, 2.51 xG. FSV Mainz 05: 9 shots, 6 on target, 1.02 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Woo-Yeong Jeong · Union Berlin · 77′Nadiem Amiri · FSV Mainz 05 · 30′Benedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05 · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Union Berlin 2.51 xG · FSV Mainz 05 1.02 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

31. FC Union Berlin
2Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin16 matches1. FSV Mainz 0516 matches
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored16/160.94 goals/match
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
1.32 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/161.16 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots16/1610.7 shots/match
3.75 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/162.69 shots/match
37.4%Possession16/16● 45.6%
5.19 corners/match ●Corners16/164.81 corners/match
2.44 cards/matchCards16/162.56 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union Berlin1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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