PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC AugsburgUnion Berlin
Shots9 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.2 fouls/match▲FoulsFC Augsburg · Union Berlin13.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgUnion BerlinBaseline
Fouls12.2 fouls/match13.4 fouls/match10.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 6 · 7 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲1.35 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲1.53 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/1712.7 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲12.4 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.71 shots/match
4.47 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/174.47 shots/match
46%Possessionseason · 17/1738.3%
4.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/175.06 corners/match
4.53 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/174.47 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCardsseason · 17/17▲2.35 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1713.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲24%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg30.6
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg30.5
Union Berlin36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg41.7
Union Berlin62
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg63.9
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg86.2
Union Berlin80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg19.4
Union Berlin66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg43
Union Berlin57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
46%Possession5/548.2%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots10/1012.8 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/1043%
3.8 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
1.06 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.35 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots17/1712.7 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.71 shots/match
46%Possession17/1738.3%
4.18 corners/matchCorners17/175.06 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCards17/172.35 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 8 matches
1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/81 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/matchShots9/812.5 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.5 shots/match
47.6%Possession9/839.1%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/84.88 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/81.63 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/812.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.21 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC AugsburgUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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