PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC AugsburgSC Freiburg
Shots13 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners9 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Augsburg, SC Freiburg. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Augsburg, SC Freiburg.

2.88 days▲Rest daysFC Augsburg · SC Freiburg3.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC AugsburgSC FreiburgBaseline
Rest days2.88 days3.88 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1FC Augsburg
0Draws
0SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 7 · 7 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲1.61 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.72 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/1812.8 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲12.5 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/184.22 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/184.28 shots/match
45.9%Possessionseason · 18/1850.9%
4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.5 corners/match
4.61 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲3.78 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.83 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.83 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲22%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg25
SC Freiburg63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg32.4
SC Freiburg50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg41.7
SC Freiburg57.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg69.4
SC Freiburg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg88.9
SC Freiburg31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg30.6
SC Freiburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg45.9
SC Freiburg38.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
48.6%Possession5/550.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.9 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1053.9%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲1.61 goals/match
1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.72 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots18/1812.8 shots/match
4.06 shots/matchShots on target18/184.22 shots/match
45.9%Possession18/1850.9%
4.44 corners/matchCorners18/184.5 corners/match
2.83 cards/matchCards18/181.83 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls18/189.83 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
47.3%Possession10/1046.4%
5.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.88 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC AugsburgSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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