PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVfB StuttgartUnion Berlin
Shots13 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners3 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Union Berlin. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.83 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Union Berlin.

4.88 days▲Rest daysVfB Stuttgart · Union Berlin2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricVfB StuttgartUnion BerlinBaseline
Rest days4.88 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.8%▲PossessionVfB Stuttgart · Union Berlin38.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartUnion BerlinBaseline
Possession56.8%38.6%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0VfB Stuttgart
0Draws
1Union Berlin
Union Berlin — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 0 · 8 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.33 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/181.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1813.1 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1812.4 shots/match
5.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.67 shots/match
4.39 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/184.44 shots/match
56.8%Possessionseason · 18/1838.6%
5.61 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.22 corners/match
4.39 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/184.39 corners/match
1.94 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.28 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1813.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1822%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart80.6
Union Berlin38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart65.7
Union Berlin63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart58.3
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart43.1
Union Berlin80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart86.1
Union Berlin75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart73.6
Union Berlin60.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/matchShots5/515.2 shots/match
7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/545.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.6 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
54.9%Possession10/1043.1%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.33 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.1 shots/match
5.78 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.67 shots/match
56.8%Possession18/1838.6%
5.61 corners/matchCorners18/185.22 corners/match
1.94 cards/matchCards18/182.28 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots9/913.3 shots/match
5.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.44 shots/match
54.8%Possession9/939.6%
5.11 corners/matchCorners9/95.22 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.56 cards/match
9.22 fouls/matchFouls9/912.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVfB StuttgartUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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