PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Köln
Shots14 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession56%44%
Corners5 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Köln's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Köln's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · 1. FC Köln13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1. FC KölnBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against16.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 8 · 5 too close

0.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.5 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲13.1 shots/match
16.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲14.1 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.75 shots/match
5.75 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4.75 shots/match
42.7%Possessionseason · 16/1647.9%
4.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.88 corners/match
4.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.38 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCardsseason · 16/161.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/168.88 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲13%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/16▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
1. FC Köln47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim13
1. FC Köln63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim4.6
1. FC Köln45.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim58.3
1. FC Köln75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim34.7
1. FC Köln16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim52.8
1. FC Köln13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim31.9
1. FC Köln40.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/550.8%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/57.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/1012.7 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
44%Possession10/1049.9%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.5 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.63 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲13.1 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.75 shots/match
42.7%Possession16/1647.9%
4.94 corners/matchCorners16/163.88 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards16/161.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls16/168.88 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.11 goals/match
2.11 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots9/912.1 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target9/94 shots/match
41.7%Possession9/945.9%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/93.67 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls9/98.78 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

19.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match