PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Voith-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim 2–2 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln drew 2–2.

Shots
1421
Shots on target
69
Expected goals
1.932.99
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – 1. FC Köln): shots 14–21, shots on target 6–9, expected goals 1.93–2.99, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.94 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Köln's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · 1. FC Köln13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1. FC KölnBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match13 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against16.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots21 shots1. FC Heidenheim 14 shots, 1. FC Köln 21 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots9 shots1. FC Heidenheim 6 shots, 1. FC Köln 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.93 xG2.99 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.93 xG, 1. FC Köln 2.99 xG
  • Possession56%44%1. FC Heidenheim 56%, 1. FC Köln 44%
  • Corners5 corners4 corners1. FC Heidenheim 5 corners, 1. FC Köln 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls7 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 9 fouls, 1. FC Köln 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 card1. FC Heidenheim 2 cards, 1. FC Köln 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alessio Castro-Montes · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 71′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 51′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 26′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 48′ · 0.04 xG · goalJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJahmai Simpson-Pusey · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJahmai Simpson-Pusey · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 15′ · 0.07 xG · goalJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 28′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 77′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 40′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 86′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 73′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.13 xG · goalEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 31′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJulian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 26′ · 0.23 xG · goalTim Siersleben · 1. FC Heidenheim · 52′ · 0.24 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 12′ · 0.29 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 9′ · 0.33 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 63′ · 0.35 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.70 xG · on targetSirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 36′ · 0.77 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.95 xG. 1. FC Köln: 21 shots, 9 on target, 2.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Marvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 15′Julian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 26′Eric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 18′Said El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.95 xG · 1. FC Köln 2.95 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
01. FC Köln
1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga4–1
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim16 matches1. FC Köln16 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.5 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.46 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 13 shots/match
3.69 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.69 shots/match
42.6%Possession16/16● 47.9%
4.94 corners/match ●Corners16/163.88 corners/match
1.69 cards/matchCards16/161.75 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls16/168.88 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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