Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap

SC Freiburg

LWLDW

2–1Full-time recap

Hamburger SV

LWWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	SC Freiburg	Hamburger SV
Shots	20 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Possession	60%	40%
Corners	0 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	11 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match▲	5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	1.06 goals/match	1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 1 · 5 too close

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161.06 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/161.69 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1612.8 shots/match

11.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1614.4 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲4.63 shots/match

4.06 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/165.06 shots/match

51.6%Possessionseason · 16/1646.1%

4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/163.75 corners/match

3.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/164.44 corners/match

1.69 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 16/162.81 cards/match

9.19 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1612.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%

81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1663%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg63.9

Hamburger SV30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg60.2

Hamburger SV50.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg64.8

Hamburger SV33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg52.8

Hamburger SV80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg18.1

Hamburger SV83.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg30.6

Hamburger SV8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg41.7

Hamburger SV55.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

19 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match

6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match

59.4%Possession5/541.8%

4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.1 shots/match

5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match

53%Possession10/1047.2%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match

9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

16 / 16 matches

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.06 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.69 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.5 shots/match▲Shots16/1612.8 shots/match

4.38 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲4.63 shots/match

51.6%Possession16/1646.1%

4.56 corners/matchCorners16/163.75 corners/match

1.69 cards/matchCards16/162.81 cards/match

9.19 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

8 / 8 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.5 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15 shots/match▲Shots8/812.1 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.25 shots/match

56.5%Possession8/846.5%

5.25 corners/matchCorners8/83.63 corners/match

2.13 cards/matchCards8/83.38 cards/match

9.75 fouls/matchFouls8/812.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/121 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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