PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeBayArenaFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayer LeverkusenWerder Bremen
Shots13 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession50%50%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsBayer Leverkusen · Werder Bremen12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenWerder BremenBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

59%▲PossessionBayer Leverkusen · Werder Bremen49.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer LeverkusenWerder BremenBaseline
Possession59%49.3%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bayer Leverkusen
1Draws
0Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen — Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayer Leverkusen favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 0 · 4 too close

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.17 goals/match
1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.94 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1812.1 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1815.4 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.06 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/186.11 shots/match
59%Possessionseason · 18/1849.3%
5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.28 corners/match
4.72 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.28 corners/match
2.5 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.78 cards/match
8.78 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1810.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1822%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayer Leverkusen91.7
Werder Bremen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayer Leverkusen71.3
Werder Bremen30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayer Leverkusen62
Werder Bremen10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayer Leverkusen19.4
Werder Bremen30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen41.6
Werder Bremen66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayer Leverkusen69.4
Werder Bremen19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayer Leverkusen55.5
Werder Bremen29.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
57.2%Possession5/549.6%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.1 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
59.4%Possession10/1050.4%
6.4 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
7.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.17 goals/match
1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.94 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.1 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.06 shots/match
59%Possession18/1849.3%
5.22 corners/matchCorners18/184.28 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards18/182.78 cards/match
8.78 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
60.9%Possession10/1047.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayer LeverkusenWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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