PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC Freiburg1. FC Köln
Shots13 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession47%53%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0SC Freiburg
0Draws
11. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga4–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 2 · 7 too close

1.63 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.47 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/191.68 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1913.5 shots/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1914.1 shots/match
4.26 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.68 shots/match
4.26 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/195.05 shots/match
50.7%Possessionseason · 19/1947.8%
4.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/194.21 corners/match
3.84 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/196.21 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/191.79 cards/match
9.58 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/198.42 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1911%
79%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg58.3
1. FC Köln47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg52.8
1. FC Köln61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg55.5
1. FC Köln37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg52.8
1. FC Köln75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg30.6
1. FC Köln19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg41.7
1. FC Köln13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg41.7
1. FC Köln37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
48.4%Possession5/549.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/56.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots10/1013.7 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target10/104.8 shots/match
52.3%Possession10/1050.8%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/107.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.47 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.68 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots19/1913.5 shots/match
4.26 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.68 shots/match
50.7%Possession19/1947.8%
4.53 corners/matchCorners19/194.21 corners/match
1.79 cards/matchCards19/191.79 cards/match
9.58 fouls/matchFouls19/198.42 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/101.1 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots9/1012.8 shots/match
5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/104 shots/match
55.4%Possession9/1046.6%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/103.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/102 cards/match
9.22 fouls/matchFouls9/108.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC Freiburg1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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