PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeStadion An der Alten FörstereiFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricUnion BerlinBorussia Dortmund
Shots10 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession56%44%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.5%▲PossessionUnion Berlin · Borussia Dortmund52.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUnion BerlinBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession39.5%52.7%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Union Berlin
0Draws
1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Union Berlin favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 8 · 5 too close

1.26 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲2 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1912.5 shots/match
12.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲10.6 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.79 shots/match
4.47 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.37 shots/match
39.5%Possessionseason · 19/1952.7%
5.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/194.89 corners/match
4.26 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/194.79 corners/match
2.16 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.89 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1911.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲53%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Union Berlin2.8
Borussia Dortmund75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Union Berlin37.9
Borussia Dortmund63
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Union Berlin58.3
Borussia Dortmund91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Union Berlin97.2
Borussia Dortmund13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin80.6
Borussia Dortmund61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Union Berlin77.8
Borussia Dortmund52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Union Berlin61.8
Borussia Dortmund59.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/554%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
45%Possession10/1049.4%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲2 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots19/1912.5 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.79 shots/match
39.5%Possession19/1952.7%
5.32 corners/matchCorners19/194.89 corners/match
2.16 cards/matchCards19/191.89 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
39.4%Possession10/1050.6%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsUnion BerlinBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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