Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap

1. FC Köln

LDLWL

1–0Full-time recap

VfL Wolfsburg

LLWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Köln	VfL Wolfsburg
Shots	15 shots/match▲	14 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Possession	42%	58%
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	16 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.4 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Köln

1Draws

0VfL Wolfsburg

13 Sept 2025VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0 · 5 too close

1.45 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/201.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/202.1 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011.8 shots/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2014.9 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204.1 shots/match

4.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.25 shots/match

47.6%Possessionseason · 20/2047.5%

4.15 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/203.8 corners/match

6.1 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/207.6 corners/match

1.75 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.1 cards/match

8.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/205%

85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln47.2

VfL Wolfsburg41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln62

VfL Wolfsburg34.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln39.8

VfL Wolfsburg19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln86.1

VfL Wolfsburg36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln16.7

VfL Wolfsburg61.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln13.9

VfL Wolfsburg8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln37.5

VfL Wolfsburg30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match

45.8%Possession5/552.4%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match

6.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match

1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/104.5 shots/match

48.6%Possession10/1048.7%

3.9 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match

7.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches

1.45 goals/matchGoals scored20/201.4 goals/match

1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/202.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.6 shots/match▲Shots20/2011.8 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204.1 shots/match

47.6%Possession20/2047.5%

4.15 corners/matchCorners20/203.8 corners/match

1.75 cards/matchCards20/202.1 cards/match

8.4 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.1 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.2 shots/match

48.5%Possession10/1044.6%

4.5 corners/matchCorners10/102.8 corners/match

1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match

8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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