PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025RheinEnergieStadion

1. FC Köln 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln won 1–0.

Shots
1514
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.241.27
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 15–14, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.24–1.27, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.4 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots14 shots1. FC Köln 15 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 14 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shots1. FC Köln 3 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.24 xG1.27 xG1. FC Köln 1.24 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.27 xG
  • Possession42%58%1. FC Köln 42%, VfL Wolfsburg 58%
  • Corners3 corners4 corners1. FC Köln 3 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls16 fouls1. FC Köln 8 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cards1. FC Köln 1 card, VfL Wolfsburg 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Maximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 29′ · 0.03 xG · goalJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Krauß · 1. FC Köln · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKento Shiogai · VfL Wolfsburg · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Lund · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Eriksen · VfL Wolfsburg · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 76′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDženan Pejčinović · VfL Wolfsburg · 87′ · 0.09 xG · on targetPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 37′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAdam Daghim · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetKento Shiogai · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.26 xG · on targetSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.27 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Linton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.27 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Köln
2Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–3
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–2
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–2
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln20 matchesVfL Wolfsburg20 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored20/201.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/202.1 goals/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/201.33 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots20/2011.8 shots/match
4.55 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/204.1 shots/match
47.6% ●Possession20/2047.5%
4.15 corners/match ●Corners20/203.8 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards20/202.1 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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