PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 05VfL Wolfsburg
Shots20 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners15 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FSV Mainz 05, VfL Wolfsburg.

7 days▲Rest daysFSV Mainz 05 · VfL Wolfsburg7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFSV Mainz 05VfL WolfsburgBaseline
Rest days7 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
0VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 4 · 8 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.47 goals/match
1.68 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/192.16 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1911.6 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/1914.8 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.16 shots/match
5.16 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/195.37 shots/match
45.7%Possessionseason · 19/1946.9%
5.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/193.79 corners/match
4.11 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/197.84 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
5%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/195%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0525
VfL Wolfsburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0512
VfL Wolfsburg35.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0530.6
VfL Wolfsburg19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0541.7
VfL Wolfsburg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0577.8
VfL Wolfsburg57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0577.8
VfL Wolfsburg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0541
VfL Wolfsburg29.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/53.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots5/510.8 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
47%Possession5/552%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.7 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
41.9%Possession10/1046.9%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.47 goals/match
1.68 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/192.16 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots19/1911.6 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.16 shots/match
45.7%Possession19/1946.9%
5.32 corners/matchCorners19/193.79 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards19/192 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲1.33 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/92.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots10/99.67 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/93.22 shots/match
49.9%Possession10/943.1%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/92.67 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/91.89 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls10/99.78 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 05VfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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