PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeDeutsche Bank ParkFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEintracht FrankfurtBayer Leverkusen
Shots11 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession42%58%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayer Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Eintracht Frankfurt
0Draws
1Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen — Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Eintracht Frankfurt favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Bayer Leverkusen in 4 · 7 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/192 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/19▲1.37 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/19▲13.9 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/1912.3 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/19▲4.74 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/194.84 shots/match
52%Possessionseason · 20/1958.9%
4.6 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/195.11 corners/match
3.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/194.89 corners/match
1.8 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/192.42 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/198.84 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/19▲26%
90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/1984%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Eintracht Frankfurt63.9
Bayer Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Eintracht Frankfurt54.7
Bayer Leverkusen75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Eintracht Frankfurt45.4
Bayer Leverkusen63
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Eintracht Frankfurt8.3
Bayer Leverkusen19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Eintracht Frankfurt44.5
Bayer Leverkusen41.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Eintracht Frankfurt41.7
Bayer Leverkusen69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Eintracht Frankfurt44.5
Bayer Leverkusen55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
3 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.4 shots/match
42.2%Possession5/556.6%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.6 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
47.7%Possession10/1061.1%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.3 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/108.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 19 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored20/192 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed20/19▲1.37 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots20/19▲13.9 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target20/19▲4.74 shots/match
52%Possession20/1958.9%
4.6 corners/matchCorners20/195.11 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards20/192.42 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls20/198.84 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲2 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed10/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots10/911.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/94 shots/match
51.2%Possession10/956.8%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/94.33 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/92.33 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/98.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEintracht FrankfurtBayer Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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