PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimUnion Berlin
Shots9 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners3 corners/match10 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match18 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1899 Hoffenheim. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1899 Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.15 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1899 Hoffenheim.

3.79 days▲Rest days1899 Hoffenheim · Union Berlin6.88 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1899 HoffenheimUnion BerlinBaseline
Rest days3.79 days6.88 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.7 fouls/match▲Fouls1899 Hoffenheim · Union Berlin13.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1899 HoffenheimUnion BerlinBaseline
Fouls14.7 fouls/match13.4 fouls/match10.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

11899 Hoffenheim
0Draws
0Union Berlin
Union Berlin — 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Union Berlin in 1 · 7 too close

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.25 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/2013.1 shots/match
12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2012.4 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.6 shots/match
4.05 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/204.45 shots/match
53.3%Possessionseason · 20/2039.6%
5.05 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.55 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲4.2 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/202.15 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2013.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2020%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim80.6
Union Berlin2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim75
Union Berlin40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim75
Union Berlin58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim25
Union Berlin97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim77.8
Union Berlin80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim63.9
Union Berlin91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim73.6
Union Berlin66
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.8 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/549.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
54.1%Possession10/1046.5%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
2.15 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.25 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.9 shots/matchShots20/2013.1 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.6 shots/match
53.3%Possession20/2039.6%
5.05 corners/matchCorners20/205.55 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCards20/202.15 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.6 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
54.8%Possession10/1039.7%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimUnion Berlin
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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