PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeEuropa-Park-StadionFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSC FreiburgWerder Bremen
Shots7 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession33%67%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five shots average is above their season average.

18.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots18.2 shots/match13.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Werder Bremen have a visible away split

moderate

Werder Bremen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Werder Bremen.

6 days▲Rest daysSC Freiburg · Werder Bremen7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricSC FreiburgWerder BremenBaseline
Rest days6 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1SC Freiburg
0Draws
0Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Werder Bremen in 1 · 5 too close

1.52 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.05 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.3 shots/match
13.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2114.4 shots/match
4.05 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/214.14 shots/match
4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/215.57 shots/match
48.9%Possessionseason · 21/2151.5%
4.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.67 corners/match
4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.19 corners/match
1.71 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.52 cards/match
9.76 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2110 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2119%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2157%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg52.8
Werder Bremen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg41.7
Werder Bremen40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg55.6
Werder Bremen18.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg47.2
Werder Bremen52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg25
Werder Bremen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg27.8
Werder Bremen41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg29.9
Werder Bremen46.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
40.4%Possession5/560.8%
3.8 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/matchShots10/1014.2 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
49.9%Possession10/1053.7%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.52 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.05 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.3 shots/match
4.05 shots/matchShots on target21/214.14 shots/match
48.9%Possession21/2151.5%
4.38 corners/matchCorners21/214.67 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards21/212.52 cards/match
9.76 fouls/matchFouls21/2110 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/110.91 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/111.91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots10/1111 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/113.82 shots/match
53.2%Possession10/1149.4%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/114.55 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/112.27 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1110.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSC FreiburgWerder Bremen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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