PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 05FC Augsburg
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match6 shots/match
Possession39%61%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match11.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
0FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · FC Augsburg in 6 · 6 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/211.14 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲12.8 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲13.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.33 shots/match
5.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲4.67 shots/match
44.7%Possessionseason · 21/2145.8%
5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.38 corners/match
4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/214.9 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/212.71 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲14%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0516.7
FC Augsburg25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0518.5
FC Augsburg39.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0533.3
FC Augsburg38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0536.1
FC Augsburg69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0580.5
FC Augsburg86.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0569.4
FC Augsburg27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0541.6
FC Augsburg50.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/matchShots5/512.8 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55.6 shots/match
41.6%Possession5/545.6%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.7 shots/match
39.9%Possession10/1045%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored21/211.14 goals/match
1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots21/21▲12.8 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.33 shots/match
44.7%Possession21/2145.8%
5.29 corners/matchCorners21/214.38 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards21/212.71 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 10 matches
1.09 goals/match▲Goals scored11/101 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots11/1013.2 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target11/10▲4.1 shots/match
48.9%Possession11/1044.5%
6.45 corners/matchCorners11/103.1 corners/match
2.18 cards/matchCards11/102.7 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1012 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 05FC Augsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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