PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
Shots14 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.27 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.27 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · FSV Mainz 0511.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots13.2 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match15 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Borussia Dortmund
0Draws
0FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · FSV Mainz 05 in 1 · 4 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.14 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.68 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2211.1 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2215 shots/match
4.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.64 shots/match
3.36 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/225.27 shots/match
54%Possessionseason · 22/2244.7%
5.45 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/225.14 corners/match
4.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4.27 corners/match
1.91 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222.64 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2211.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/229%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2259%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund80.6
FSV Mainz 0519.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund78.7
FSV Mainz 0517.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
FSV Mainz 0523.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund30.6
FSV Mainz 0536.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund61.1
FSV Mainz 0575
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund80.6
FSV Mainz 0569.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund75
FSV Mainz 0540.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
58.4%Possession5/542.2%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.9 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
54.1%Possession10/1041.9%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.14 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.68 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots22/2211.1 shots/match
4.91 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.64 shots/match
54%Possession22/2244.7%
5.45 corners/matchCorners22/225.14 corners/match
1.91 cards/matchCards22/222.64 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
2.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
0.73 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots11/119.27 shots/match
5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.45 shots/match
56%Possession11/1140.5%
7.18 corners/matchCorners11/113.82 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/113.09 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundFSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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