Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

DWWDW

1–0Full-time recap

SC Freiburg

WWLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	SC Freiburg
Shots	18 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	69%	31%
Corners	6 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	14 fouls/match
Yellow cards	3 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.85 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0VfB Stuttgart

0Draws

1SC Freiburg

13 Sept 2025SC Freiburg — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 1 · 7 too close

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.55 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.65 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

15.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2012.8 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2013.1 shots/match

5.95 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204.15 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/204.4 shots/match

57.4%Possessionseason · 20/2049.7%

5.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.4 corners/match

4.1 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/203.95 corners/match

1.95 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.75 cards/match

9.95 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2020%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2075%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

SC Freiburg52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart80.6

SC Freiburg47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart71.3

SC Freiburg53.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart58.3

SC Freiburg47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart43

SC Freiburg25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart88.9

SC Freiburg27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart75

SC Freiburg34.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match

7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match

56.6%Possession5/545.8%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match

1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match

9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match

1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.2 shots/match

6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match

55.4%Possession10/1049.4%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.4 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match

9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches

1.85 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.55 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.65 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.6 shots/match▲Shots20/2012.8 shots/match

5.95 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204.15 shots/match

57.4%Possession20/2049.7%

5.55 corners/matchCorners20/204.4 corners/match

1.95 cards/matchCards20/201.75 cards/match

9.95 fouls/matchFouls20/209.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 11 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111.18 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/112 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1111.1 shots/match

5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/113.18 shots/match

56.2%Possession10/1145%

5.2 corners/matchCorners10/113.73 corners/match

2.1 cards/matchCards10/111.55 cards/match

9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1110.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.92 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match