PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Signal Iduna Park

Borussia Dortmund 3–2 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 3–2.

Shots
1912
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
3.322.26
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3–2. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 19–12, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 3.32–2.26, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.05 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · 1. FC Heidenheim11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match15.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.4% ●PossessionBorussia Dortmund · 1. FC Heidenheim41.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession53.4%41.6%48.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots12 shotsBorussia Dortmund 19 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsBorussia Dortmund 5 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 3 shots
  • Expected goals3.32 xG2.26 xGBorussia Dortmund 3.32 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 2.26 xG
  • Possession65%35%Borussia Dortmund 65%, 1. FC Heidenheim 35%
  • Corners12 corners3 cornersBorussia Dortmund 12 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls11 foulsBorussia Dortmund 11 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsBorussia Dortmund 2 cards, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Felix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 62′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJobe Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 14′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHennes Behrens · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJobe Bellingham · Borussia Dortmund · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 48′ · 0.05 xG · goalCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 69′ · 0.06 xG · goalJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 22′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 27′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 51′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJulian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 38′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 30′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJulian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.22 xG · goalEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 26′ · 0.23 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 74′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedWaldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.29 xG · goalArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 58′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedMikkel Kaufmann · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 68′ · 0.82 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 85′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 19 shots, 5 on target, 3.36 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 12 shots, 3 on target, 2.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Waldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 44′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 68′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 69′Julian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′Julian Niehues · 1. FC Heidenheim · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 3.36 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 2.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Borussia Dortmund
2Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2
1. FC Heidenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–2
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga4–2
1. FC Heidenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–0
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund20 matches1. FC Heidenheim20 matches
2.05 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/200.95 goals/match
0.95 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/202.25 goals/match
1.8 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/201.31 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots20/2011.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/203.55 shots/match
53.4% ●Possession20/2041.6%
5.25 corners/match ●Corners20/204.65 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards20/201.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2010.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia Dortmund1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — 1. FC Heidenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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