PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeSignal Iduna ParkFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC Heidenheim
Shots19 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners12 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.05 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · 1. FC Heidenheim11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match15.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.4%▲PossessionBorussia Dortmund · 1. FC Heidenheim41.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession53.4%41.6%48.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Borussia Dortmund
0Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1 · 4 too close

2.05 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.95 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/202.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011.4 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2015.7 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.55 shots/match
3.35 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.75 shots/match
53.4%Possessionseason · 20/2041.6%
5.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.65 corners/match
4.7 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/205 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2010.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/200%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2065%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund80.6
1. FC Heidenheim8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund67.6
1. FC Heidenheim13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund91.7
1. FC Heidenheim4.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund19.4
1. FC Heidenheim63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund55.5
1. FC Heidenheim36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund72.2
1. FC Heidenheim47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund63.9
1. FC Heidenheim31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
55.6%Possession5/541%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots10/1012.1 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
50.4%Possession10/1044%
4.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
2.05 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.95 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/202.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots20/2011.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.55 shots/match
53.4%Possession20/2041.6%
5.25 corners/matchCorners20/204.65 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards20/201.75 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2010.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.3 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
56.1%Possession10/1043.1%
7.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia Dortmund1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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