PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Volksparkstadion

Hamburger SV 2–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Hamburger SV and FC Bayern München drew 2–2.

Shots
1413
Shots on target
47
Expected goals
2.262.35
Possession
28%72%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hamburger SV and Bayern München drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Hamburger SV – Bayern München): shots 14–13, shots on target 4–7, expected goals 2.26–2.35, possession 28%–72%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHamburger SV · Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match9.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%PossessionHamburger SV · Bayern München● 68%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession46.3%68%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

weak

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots13 shotsHamburger SV 14 shots, FC Bayern München 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots7 shotsHamburger SV 4 shots, FC Bayern München 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.26 xG2.35 xGHamburger SV 2.26 xG, FC Bayern München 2.35 xG
  • Possession28%72%Hamburger SV 28%, FC Bayern München 72%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersHamburger SV 3 corners, FC Bayern München 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls16 foulsHamburger SV 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards6 cards4 cardsHamburger SV 6 cards, FC Bayern München 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Serge Gnabry · Bayern München · 16′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · Bayern München · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · Bayern München · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiro Muheim · Hamburger SV · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · Bayern München · 14′ · 0.10 xG · on targetNicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV · 24′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 5′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 50′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Capaldo · Hamburger SV · 59′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 75′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 6′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayern München · 67′ · 0.27 xG · on targetLennart Karl · Bayern München · 15′ · 0.29 xG · on targetLuka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 53′ · 0.30 xG · goalHarry Kane · Bayern München · 42′ · 0.38 xG · goalJoshua Kimmich · Bayern München · 42′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedLuis Díaz · Bayern München · 46′ · 0.57 xG · goalFábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 34′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hamburger SV: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.29 xG. Bayern München: 13 shots, 7 on target, 2.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Fábio Vieira · Hamburger SV · 34′Luka Vušković · Hamburger SV · 53′Harry Kane · Bayern München · 42′Luis Díaz · Bayern München · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hamburger SV 2.29 xG · Bayern München 2.32 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Hamburger SV
0Draws
1FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga5–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hamburger SV19 matchesFC Bayern München20 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored19/20▲ 3.7 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed19/20▲ 0.9 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals19/20▲ 2.88 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots19/20▲ 18.9 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on target19/20▲ 8.6 shots/match
46.3%Possession19/20● 68%
3.63 corners/matchCorners19/20● 6.3 corners/match
2.79 cards/matchCards19/201.9 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls19/209.25 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamburger SVFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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