PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeVolksparkstadionFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHamburger SVBayern München
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession28%72%
Corners3 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match16 fouls/match
Yellow cards6 cards/match4 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsHamburger SV · Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match9.65 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%▲PossessionHamburger SV · Bayern München68%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SVBayern MünchenBaseline
Possession46.3%68%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Hamburger SV's recent record differs from the season

weak

Hamburger SV's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Hamburger SV
0Draws
1Bayern München
Bayern München — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga5–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 10 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/20▲3.7 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/20▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/20▲18.9 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/20▲9.65 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/20▲8.6 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/20▲2.35 shots/match
46.3%Possessionseason · 19/2068%
3.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/206.3 corners/match
4.74 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/20▲3.55 corners/match
2.79 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/20▲1.9 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/209.25 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/20▲40%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/20▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hamburger SV30.6
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hamburger SV52.8
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hamburger SV50.9
Bayern München95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hamburger SV80.6
Bayern München69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV91.7
Bayern München36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hamburger SV2.8
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hamburger SV58.3
Bayern München77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8.6 shots/match
44.4%Possession5/568%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.8 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/58.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.9 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.9 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.8 shots/match
44.8%Possession10/1071%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.9 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/108.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 20 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored19/20▲3.7 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed19/20▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/matchShots19/20▲18.9 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on target19/20▲8.6 shots/match
46.3%Possession19/2068%
3.63 corners/matchCorners19/206.3 corners/match
2.79 cards/matchCards19/201.9 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls19/209.25 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.4 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.2 shots/match
5.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲8.7 shots/match
45.1%Possession10/1067.2%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHamburger SVBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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