PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Philips Stadion

PSV Eindhoven 1–2 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–2.

Shots
1317
Shots on target
78
Expected goals
0.691.82
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat PSV Eindhoven 2–1. Recorded in this match (PSV Eindhoven – FC Bayern München): shots 13–17, shots on target 7–8, expected goals 0.69–1.82, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PSV Eindhoven have a visible home split

weak

PSV Eindhoven's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match10.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.75 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsPSV Eindhoven · FC Bayern München17.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match9.88 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots17 shotsPSV Eindhoven 13 shots, FC Bayern München 17 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots8 shotsPSV Eindhoven 7 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.69 xG1.82 xGPSV Eindhoven 0.69 xG, FC Bayern München 1.82 xG
  • Possession42%58%PSV Eindhoven 42%, FC Bayern München 58%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersPSV Eindhoven 5 corners, FC Bayern München 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsPSV Eindhoven 11 fouls, FC Bayern München 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ivan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 44′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 16′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 16′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 78′ · 0.05 xG · goalLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 33′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSacha Boey · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 61′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 43′ · 0.15 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.18 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.22 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 58′ · 0.28 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PSV Eindhoven: 13 shots, 7 on target, 0.70 xG. FC Bayern München: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ismael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 78′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 58′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PSV Eindhoven 0.70 xG · FC Bayern München 1.84 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PSV Eindhoven favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PSV Eindhoven8 matchesFC Bayern München8 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.75 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1 goal/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 2.51 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 17.4 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 7.63 shots/match
51.8%Possession8/8● 58.6%
5 corners/match ●Corners8/84.63 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPSV EindhovenFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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