PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timePhilips StadionFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPSV EindhovenFC Bayern München
Shots13 shots/match17 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.69 xG/match1.82 xG/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ivan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 44′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 16′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 16′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 78′ · 0.05 xG · goalLuis Díaz · FC Bayern München · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Jackson · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 33′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPaul Wanner · PSV Eindhoven · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSacha Boey · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLennart Karl · FC Bayern München · 61′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 68′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIvan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 43′ · 0.15 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.18 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.22 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 58′ · 0.28 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PSV Eindhoven: 13 shots, 7 on target, 0.70 xG. FC Bayern München: 17 shots, 8 on target, 1.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ismael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 78′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 58′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PSV Eindhoven 0.70 xG · FC Bayern München 1.84 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: PSV Eindhoven's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

PSV Eindhoven have a visible home split

weak

PSV Eindhoven's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match10.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.75 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsPSV Eindhoven · FC Bayern München17.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match9.88 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

PSV Eindhoven favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11 · 3 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲2.75 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲2.51 xG/match
2.05 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲0.99 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲17.4 shots/match
16.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲9.88 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲7.63 shots/match
6.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4 shots/match
51.8%Possessionseason · 8/858.6%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/84.63 corners/match
6.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲3.63 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/810.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/8▲25%
88%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

PSV Eindhoven60.7
FC Bayern München91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

PSV Eindhoven38.6
FC Bayern München91.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

PSV Eindhoven19
FC Bayern München81.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

PSV Eindhoven10.7
FC Bayern München63.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

PSV Eindhoven31
FC Bayern München41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

PSV Eindhoven61.9
FC Bayern München47.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

PSV Eindhoven34.5
FC Bayern München66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.85 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
47.6%Possession5/556.6%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.75 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.51 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲17.4 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲7.63 shots/match
51.8%Possession8/858.6%
5 corners/matchCorners8/84.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲2.75 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.51 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots8/8▲17.4 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲7.63 shots/match
51.8%Possession8/858.6%
5 corners/matchCorners8/84.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
2.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/42.5 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1.5 goals/match
2.18 xG/matchExpected goals4/42.13 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲15 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲7.5 shots/match
54.3%Possession4/453.5%
6.25 corners/matchCorners4/43.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPSV EindhovenFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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