PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeMewa ArenaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFSV Mainz 05Hamburger SV
Shots17 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
1Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 6 · 7 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/221.14 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/22▲1.45 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/22▲13.2 shots/match
15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/22▲13.9 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/22▲4.82 shots/match
5.26 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/22▲4.68 shots/match
44.7%Possessionseason · 23/2247.4%
5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/223.86 corners/match
4.17 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/225 corners/match
2.65 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/222.73 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2212.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/22▲27%
61%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2264%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FSV Mainz 0513.9
Hamburger SV47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FSV Mainz 0515.7
Hamburger SV50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FSV Mainz 0530.6
Hamburger SV49.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FSV Mainz 0541.7
Hamburger SV69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0583.3
Hamburger SV91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FSV Mainz 0569.4
Hamburger SV8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FSV Mainz 0543.1
Hamburger SV54.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
43.6%Possession5/549.6%
6.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/105.1 shots/match
40.9%Possession10/1048%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.6 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 22 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored23/221.14 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed23/22▲1.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots23/22▲13.2 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target23/22▲4.82 shots/match
44.7%Possession23/2247.4%
5.22 corners/matchCorners23/223.86 corners/match
2.65 cards/matchCards23/222.73 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2212.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches
1.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/110.64 goals/match
1.17 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1111.8 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/11▲4.18 shots/match
48.6%Possession12/1148.7%
6.5 corners/matchCorners12/113.91 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards12/112.91 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1112.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFSV Mainz 05Hamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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