PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern MünchenEintracht Frankfurt
Shots24 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match3.7 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.1 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · Eintracht Frankfurt11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenEintracht FrankfurtBaseline
Shots19.1 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9.78 shots/match12.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

66.6%▲PossessionBayern München · Eintracht Frankfurt52.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern MünchenEintracht FrankfurtBaseline
Possession66.6%52.4%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayern München
0Draws
0Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt — Bayern München · Bundesliga0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Eintracht Frankfurt in 0 · 4 too close

3.7 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/232 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/232.13 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2311.5 shots/match
9.78 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2312.8 shots/match
8.91 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.39 shots/match
2.48 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/234.78 shots/match
66.6%Possessionseason · 23/2352.4%
6.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.26 corners/match
3.39 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.17 corners/match
1.78 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232 cards/match
9.17 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2317%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2391%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
Eintracht Frankfurt63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
Eintracht Frankfurt50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
Eintracht Frankfurt37
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
Eintracht Frankfurt2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München26.4
Eintracht Frankfurt48.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2
Eintracht Frankfurt19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München77.1
Eintracht Frankfurt35.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18 shots/match▲Shots5/58.8 shots/match
9.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
62.6%Possession5/551%
7.6 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.1 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
9.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
67%Possession10/1048.8%
7.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
3.7 goals/match▲Goals scored23/232 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/232.13 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.1 shots/match▲Shots23/2311.5 shots/match
8.91 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.39 shots/match
66.6%Possession23/2352.4%
6.35 corners/matchCorners23/234.26 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards23/232 cards/match
9.17 fouls/matchFouls23/2311 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
4 goals/match▲Goals scored12/122.17 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.58 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.6 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.6 shots/match
9.17 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.83 shots/match
66.2%Possession12/1254.2%
6.83 corners/matchCorners12/123.58 corners/match
1.42 cards/matchCards12/122.33 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern MünchenEintracht Frankfurt
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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