PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeWeserstadionFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWerder BremenBayern München
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match1 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsWerder Bremen · Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWerder BremenBayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match18.9 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match9.82 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Werder Bremen
0Draws
1Bayern München
Bayern München — Werder Bremen · Bundesliga4–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Werder Bremen favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Bayern München in 10 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲3.73 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲18.9 shots/match
14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲9.82 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲8.82 shots/match
5.68 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲2.45 shots/match
50.8%Possessionseason · 22/2267.3%
4.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/226.27 corners/match
5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲3.45 corners/match
2.55 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.86 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/229.18 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲41%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Werder Bremen58.3
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Werder Bremen42.6
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Werder Bremen17.6
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Werder Bremen58.3
Bayern München80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen58.3
Bayern München25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Werder Bremen41.7
Bayern München97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Werder Bremen47.9
Bayern München76.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.4 shots/match▲Shots5/517 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲9.4 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/564%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/57.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲3.8 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.6 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲9.8 shots/match
52.3%Possession10/1067.8%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/106.8 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/108.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲3.73 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲0.86 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots22/22▲18.9 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲8.82 shots/match
50.8%Possession22/2267.3%
4.55 corners/matchCorners22/226.27 corners/match
2.55 cards/matchCards22/221.86 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls22/229.18 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲3.36 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.82 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.6 shots/matchShots11/11▲17.5 shots/match
4.36 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲8.64 shots/match
52.2%Possession11/1167%
4.55 corners/matchCorners11/115.82 corners/match
2.82 cards/matchCards11/112.18 cards/match
9.82 fouls/matchFouls11/118.82 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWerder BremenBayern München
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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