PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeAllianz ArenaFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBayern München1899 Hoffenheim
Shots27 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target14 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession55%45%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.3 shots/match▲ShotsBayern München · 1899 Hoffenheim12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayern München1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Shots19.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against9.62 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.4%▲PossessionBayern München · 1899 Hoffenheim52.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayern München1899 HoffenheimBaseline
Possession67.4%52.9%48.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bayern München
0Draws
01899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim — Bayern München · Bundesliga1–4

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bayern München favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · 1899 Hoffenheim in 0 · 4 too close

3.76 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/212.1 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
19.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2112.7 shots/match
9.62 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113.2 shots/match
8.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.86 shots/match
2.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.52 shots/match
67.4%Possessionseason · 21/2152.9%
6.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.95 corners/match
3.52 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.62 corners/match
1.9 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.1 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2114.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2124%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2186%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bayern München97.2
1899 Hoffenheim66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bayern München97.2
1899 Hoffenheim71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bayern München97.2
1899 Hoffenheim65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bayern München86.1
1899 Hoffenheim19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bayern München31.9
1899 Hoffenheim80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bayern München97.2
1899 Hoffenheim61.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bayern München77.8
1899 Hoffenheim70.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/52 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
9.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
65.4%Possession5/547.2%
8.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.8 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
3.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/102.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.9 shots/match
9.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
69.3%Possession10/1053.1%
7.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
8.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
3.76 goals/match▲Goals scored21/212.1 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
19.3 shots/match▲Shots21/2112.7 shots/match
8.86 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.86 shots/match
67.4%Possession21/2152.9%
6.38 corners/matchCorners21/214.95 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards21/212.1 cards/match
9.33 fouls/matchFouls21/2114.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
4.09 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.82 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
20.3 shots/match▲Shots11/1111.2 shots/match
9 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match
67.5%Possession11/1151.1%
6.73 corners/matchCorners11/114.55 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/112.45 cards/match
9.55 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBayern München1899 Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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