PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timePreZero ArenaFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1899 HoffenheimSC Freiburg
Shots25 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: 1899 Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1899 Hoffenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1899 Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01899 Hoffenheim
1Draws
0SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg — 1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1899 Hoffenheim favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 2 · 6 too close

2.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.45 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.64 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2212.5 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2213.8 shots/match
4.95 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224 shots/match
4.45 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/224.55 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 22/2248.5%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.45 corners/match
5.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4.23 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.68 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/229.59 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2223%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2273%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1899 Hoffenheim75
SC Freiburg52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1899 Hoffenheim79.6
SC Freiburg40.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1899 Hoffenheim69.4
SC Freiburg50.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1899 Hoffenheim36.1
SC Freiburg47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim82
SC Freiburg26.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1899 Hoffenheim58.3
SC Freiburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1899 Hoffenheim76.4
SC Freiburg31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
51.8%Possession5/541%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/1013.1 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
53.2%Possession10/1046.3%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
2.14 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.45 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.64 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots22/2212.5 shots/match
4.95 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224 shots/match
53.2%Possession22/2248.5%
5 corners/matchCorners22/224.45 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards22/221.68 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls22/229.59 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
2.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/121.08 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/122.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots11/1211.3 shots/match
5.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.17 shots/match
55.4%Possession11/1244.5%
5.45 corners/matchCorners11/123.92 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/121.5 cards/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls11/129.92 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1899 HoffenheimSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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