PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeRheinEnergieStadionFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnRB Leipzig
Shots10 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession46%54%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Köln · RB Leipzig16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Köln
0Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 4 too close

1.43 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.9 goals/match
1.62 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲16.2 shots/match
14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲12.2 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.62 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.95 shots/match
47.5%Possessionseason · 21/2152.9%
4.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.29 corners/match
5.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.62 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.43 cards/match
8.33 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.24 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲43%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln47.2
RB Leipzig66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln62
RB Leipzig82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln36.1
RB Leipzig76.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln75
RB Leipzig91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln15.3
RB Leipzig11.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln13.9
RB Leipzig72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln37.5
RB Leipzig66
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots5/514.8 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5 shots/match
46.2%Possession5/558.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
6.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.9 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.3 shots/match
48.5%Possession10/1057.5%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
7.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.9 goals/match
1.62 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots21/21▲16.2 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.62 shots/match
47.5%Possession21/2152.9%
4.14 corners/matchCorners21/215.29 corners/match
1.71 cards/matchCards21/211.43 cards/match
8.33 fouls/matchFouls21/219.24 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.73 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.55 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/matchShots11/11▲15.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.55 shots/match
48.3%Possession11/1153.1%
4.45 corners/matchCorners11/114.91 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards11/111.73 cards/match
7.91 fouls/matchFouls11/119.91 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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