PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeRed Bull ArenaFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRB LeipzigVfL Wolfsburg
Shots20 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.41 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.4 shots/match▲ShotsRB Leipzig · VfL Wolfsburg11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match11.7 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1RB Leipzig
0Draws
0VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

RB Leipzig favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0 · 4 too close

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.41 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/222.09 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2211.7 shots/match
12.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2215.4 shots/match
5.82 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.95 shots/match
3.91 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/225.41 shots/match
53.5%Possessionseason · 22/2246.2%
5.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/223.73 corners/match
4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/227.55 corners/match
1.41 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 22/222.05 cards/match
9.09 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2211.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
41%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/225%
91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2282%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

RB Leipzig75
VfL Wolfsburg36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

RB Leipzig84.3
VfL Wolfsburg33.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

RB Leipzig75
VfL Wolfsburg12.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

RB Leipzig91.7
VfL Wolfsburg41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig11.1
VfL Wolfsburg57
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

RB Leipzig75
VfL Wolfsburg2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

RB Leipzig68.1
VfL Wolfsburg27.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
64%Possession5/547.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.6 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match
1.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.5 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
58.5%Possession10/1047%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.4 corners/match
1.1 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
8.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.41 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/222.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.4 shots/match▲Shots22/2211.7 shots/match
5.82 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.95 shots/match
53.5%Possession22/2246.2%
5.32 corners/matchCorners22/223.73 corners/match
1.41 cards/matchCards22/222.05 cards/match
9.09 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
2.27 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.27 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.09 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.1 shots/match
7.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.18 shots/match
54%Possession11/1143.5%
5.73 corners/matchCorners11/112.73 corners/match
1.09 cards/matchCards11/112.09 cards/match
8.27 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.08 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRB LeipzigVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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