Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTCFull timeWWK ArenaFull-time recap

FC Augsburg

DDWWL

1–0Full-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

LDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Augsburg	1. FC Heidenheim
Shots	12 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0FC Augsburg

0Draws

11. FC Heidenheim

27 Sept 20251. FC Heidenheim — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 1 · 5 too close

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/220.86 goals/match

1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/222.18 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2212 shots/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2215.5 shots/match

4.32 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.5 shots/match

4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/225.64 shots/match

46%Possessionseason · 22/2242.3%

4.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.91 corners/match

4.91 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/225.09 corners/match

2.64 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.68 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2210.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/220%

68%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2259%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg30.6

1. FC Heidenheim8.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg38

1. FC Heidenheim12.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg43.5

1. FC Heidenheim4.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg63.9

1. FC Heidenheim86.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg84.8

1. FC Heidenheim33.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg22.2

1. FC Heidenheim52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg47.9

1. FC Heidenheim32

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.4 shots/matchShots5/513.6 shots/match

5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match

45.8%Possession5/538%

5 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲14 shots/match

4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match

45.9%Possession10/1043.3%

4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match

10 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored22/220.86 goals/match

1.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/222.18 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.7 shots/match▲Shots22/2212 shots/match

4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.5 shots/match

46%Possession22/2242.3%

4.36 corners/matchCorners22/224.91 corners/match

2.64 cards/matchCards22/221.68 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls22/2210.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 11 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/110.82 goals/match

1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/112.18 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

12.3 shots/matchShots12/1111.7 shots/match

4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/113.27 shots/match

47.2%Possession12/1143.8%

5.42 corners/matchCorners12/114.82 corners/match

2.58 cards/matchCards12/112.09 cards/match

11.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1111.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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