Bundesliga · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeMHPArenaFull-time recap

VfB Stuttgart

WDWWL

3–1Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

LWLWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	1. FC Köln
Shots	13 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	57%	43%
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	10 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.8%▲PossessionVfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Köln47.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	VfB Stuttgart	1. FC Köln	Baseline
Possession	57.8%	47.3%	47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1VfB Stuttgart

0Draws

01. FC Köln

28 Sept 20251. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

VfB Stuttgart favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 1 · 4 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.41 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.68 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

15 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2213.2 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2214.2 shots/match

5.73 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.45 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/224.86 shots/match

57.8%Possessionseason · 22/2247.3%

5.36 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.18 corners/match

4.18 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/225.77 corners/match

2.05 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.68 cards/match

9.95 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/228.41 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2214%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2286%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfB Stuttgart86.1

1. FC Köln47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfB Stuttgart80.6

1. FC Köln56.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfB Stuttgart70.4

1. FC Köln37

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfB Stuttgart52.8

1. FC Köln75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart41.7

1. FC Köln15.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfB Stuttgart80.6

1. FC Köln13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfB Stuttgart72.2

1. FC Köln33.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.8 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match

61.4%Possession5/549.2%

4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match

2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match

9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.2 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match

55.9%Possession10/1047.7%

4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match

2.1 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match

8.8 fouls/matchFouls10/107.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.41 goals/match

1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.68 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15 shots/match▲Shots22/2213.2 shots/match

5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.45 shots/match

57.8%Possession22/2247.3%

5.36 corners/matchCorners22/224.18 corners/match

2.05 cards/matchCards22/221.68 cards/match

9.95 fouls/matchFouls22/228.41 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.09 goals/match

1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.5 shots/match

5.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.91 shots/match

56.3%Possession11/1146.3%

4.91 corners/matchCorners11/113.91 corners/match

2.27 cards/matchCards11/111.91 cards/match

9.73 fouls/matchFouls11/118.91 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.12 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples22 / 22home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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