PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025MHPArena

VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 3–1.

Shots
1310
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
2.241.59
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – 1. FC Köln): shots 13–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 2.24–1.59, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.9% ●PossessionVfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Köln47.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB Stuttgart1. FC KölnBaseline
Possession57.9%47.2%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots10 shotsVfB Stuttgart 13 shots, 1. FC Köln 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsVfB Stuttgart 4 shots, 1. FC Köln 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.24 xG1.59 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.24 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.59 xG
  • Possession57%43%VfB Stuttgart 57%, 1. FC Köln 43%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersVfB Stuttgart 2 corners, 1. FC Köln 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls10 foulsVfB Stuttgart 10 fouls, 1. FC Köln 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardVfB Stuttgart 4 cards, 1. FC Köln 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Cenk Özkaçar · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenz Assignon · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChema Andrés · VfB Stuttgart · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 65′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTom Krauß · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 40′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSaid El Mala · 1. FC Köln · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Sebulonsen · 1. FC Köln · 63′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · 1. FC Köln · 9′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 23′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.24 xG · goalMarius Bülter · 1. FC Köln · 59′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 84′ · 0.35 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 15′ · 0.44 xG · goalDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 2′ · 0.54 xG · on targetRagnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 79′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.23 xG. 1. FC Köln: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ermedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 15′Ermedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 84′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 90′Ragnar Ache · 1. FC Köln · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.23 xG · 1. FC Köln 1.54 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3VfB Stuttgart
2Draws
01. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–2
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–2
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Köln — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart22 matches1. FC Köln22 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/221.41 goals/match
1.32 goals/match ▲Goals allowed22/221.68 goals/match
1.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.42 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots22/2213.2 shots/match
5.73 shots/match ▲Shots on target22/224.41 shots/match
57.9% ●Possession22/2247.2%
5.36 corners/match ●Corners22/224.18 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCards22/221.68 cards/match
9.95 fouls/matchFouls22/228.41 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB Stuttgart1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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