PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Voith-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

3–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart drew 3–3.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
2.042.24
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart drew 3–3. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – VfB Stuttgart): shots 10–12, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 2.04–2.24, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.9%Possession1. FC Heidenheim · VfB Stuttgart● 58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession41.9%58.2%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · VfB Stuttgart15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match15 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.91 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shots1. FC Heidenheim 10 shots, VfB Stuttgart 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shots1. FC Heidenheim 6 shots, VfB Stuttgart 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.04 xG2.24 xG1. FC Heidenheim 2.04 xG, VfB Stuttgart 2.24 xG
  • Possession34%66%1. FC Heidenheim 34%, VfB Stuttgart 66%
  • Corners3 corners4 corners1. FC Heidenheim 3 corners, VfB Stuttgart 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls7 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 13 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cards1. FC Heidenheim 1 card, VfB Stuttgart 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Bilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStefan Schimmer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBilal El Khannouss · VfB Stuttgart · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 58′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 27′ · 0.09 xG · on targetArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 50′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 69′ · 0.18 xG · on targetArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 82′ · 0.18 xG · on targetEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 20′ · 0.20 xG · goalDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.20 xG · goalAdam Kölle · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.21 xG · on targetSirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 82′ · 0.51 xG · goalChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 5′ · 0.55 xG · goalArijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 34′ · 0.82 xG · goalMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 44′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 10 shots, 6 on target, 2.14 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Eren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 20′Arijon Ibrahimović · 1. FC Heidenheim · 34′Sirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 82′Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 5′Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 44′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.14 xG · VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
2VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–0
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Heidenheim — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–3
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga3–3
1. FC Heidenheim — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim23 matchesVfB Stuttgart23 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.91 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.39 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.66 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 15 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 5.83 shots/match
41.9%Possession23/23● 58.2%
4.83 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.3 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards23/232.04 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls23/239.83 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2025/26
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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