PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2025Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTCFull timeVoith-ArenaFull-time recap
3–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
Shots10 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target6 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

42%▲Possession1. FC Heidenheim · VfB Stuttgart58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession42%58.2%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · VfB Stuttgart14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.91 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Heidenheim
0Draws
1VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 9 · 4 too close

0.96 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.91 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.39 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲14.9 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲12.3 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲5.83 shots/match
5.74 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.35 shots/match
42%Possessionseason · 23/2358.2%
4.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.3 corners/match
5.04 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.13 corners/match
1.65 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 23/232.04 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/239.83 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲35%
61%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim8.3
VfB Stuttgart86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim15.8
VfB Stuttgart81.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim4.6
VfB Stuttgart70.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim80.6
VfB Stuttgart47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim36.1
VfB Stuttgart41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim52.8
VfB Stuttgart77.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim35.4
VfB Stuttgart71.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/513.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
38.8%Possession5/563.2%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.3 goals/match
2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.7 shots/match
42.8%Possession10/1058.4%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/105 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.91 goals/match
2.22 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.39 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots23/23▲14.9 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲5.83 shots/match
42%Possession23/2358.2%
4.83 corners/matchCorners23/235.3 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards23/232.04 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls23/239.83 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.25 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.1 shots/matchShots12/12▲14.3 shots/match
3.92 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.92 shots/match
40.3%Possession12/1259.9%
4.83 corners/matchCorners12/125.67 corners/match
1.25 cards/matchCards12/121.83 cards/match
9.92 fouls/matchFouls12/129.92 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Feb 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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